Research Projects

Current ERC Grants        


DECIDE - The impact of DEmographic Changes on Infectious DisEases transmission and control in middle/low income countries, ERC Starting Grant 2012-2017


EINITE - Economic Inequality across Italy and Europe, 1300-1800, ERC Starting Grant 2011-2016


IFAMID - Institutional Family Demography, ERC Advanced Grant 2016-2021


INTERACT - INTerEthnic Relationships in contemporary CommuniTies: How does ethnoracial diversity affect in- and outgroup trust, solidarity, and cooperation, ERC Starting Grant 2016-2021


SWELLFER - Subjective Well-Being & Fertility, ERC Starting Grant 2013-2018


Other Current Research Grants

AXA Postdoctoral Fellowship - Adolescent substance assessment of risk factors and existing policies in a comparative perspective, AXA Research Fund 2013-2017, AXA Research Fund 2013-2017


LExEM - Laboratory of Excellence for Epidemiology and Modeling (LExEM): Facing the introduction and spread of Invasive Alien Species (IAS) into the territory of the Autonomous Province of Trento, 2013-2017





Alfani, G., & Murphy, T. E. (2017). Plague and lethal epidemics in the pre-industrial world. The Journal of Economic History, 77(1), 314-343.

Conzo, P., Fuochi, G., & Mencarini, L. (2017). Fertility and Life Satisfaction in Rural Ethiopia. Demography, 1-21.

Del Fava, E., Ioriatti, C., & Melegaro, A. (2017). Cost‐benefit analysis of controlling the spotted wing drosophila (Drosophila suzukii (Matsumura) spread and infestation of soft fruits in Trentino, Northern Italy. Pest Management Science.

Johnson, P., Nicholls, S., Student, J., Amelung, B., Baggio, R., Balbi, S., ... & Pons, M. (2017). Easing the adoption of agent-based modelling (ABM) in tourism research. Current Issues in Tourism, 20(8), 801-808.

Melegaro, A., Del Fava, E., Poletti, P., Merler, S., Nyamukapa, C., Williams, J., ... & Manfredi, P. (2017). Social Contact Structures and Time Use Patterns in the Manicaland Province of Zimbabwe. PloS one, 12(1), e0170459.

Provenzano, D., & Baggio, R. (2017). The contribution of human migration to tourism: The VFR travel between the EU28 member states. International Journal of Tourism Research.

Robone, S. (2017). Comment on ‘Response–scale heterogeneity in the EQ‐5D: Can we use vignettes to address response‐scale heterogeneity in the EQ‐5D? Not if but how’. Health economics, 26(3), 395-397.

Sebrango-Rodríguez, C. R., Martínez-Bello, D. A., Sánchez-Valdés, L., Thilakarathne, P. J., Del Fava, E., VAN DER STUYFT, P., ... & Shkedy, Z. (2017). Real-time parameter estimation of Zika outbreaks using model averaging. Epidemiology & Infection, 1-11.


Aassve, A., Arpino, B., & Balbo, N. (2016). It Takes Two to Tango: Couples’ Happiness and Childbearing. European Journal of Population, 32(3), 339-354.

Aassve, A., Billari, F. C., & Pessin, L. (2016). Trust and fertility dynamics. Social Forces, 1-30.

Alfani, G. (2016). La popolazione dell'Italia settentrionale nel XV e XVI secolo: scenari regionali e macro-regionali. La popolazione italiana del Quattrocento e Cinquecento, 19-40.

Alfani, G., Carbone, A., Del Bo, B., & Rao, R. (2016). La popolazione italiana del Quattrocento e Cinquecento. Forum.

Alfani, G., & Di Tullio, M. (2015). Dinamiche di lungo periodo della disuguaglianza in Italia settentrionale: una nota di ricerca (No. 071).

Alfani, G., & Frigeni, R. (2013). Inequality (un) perceived: The emergence of a discourse on economic inequality from the Middle Ages to the Age of Revolutions. Dondena Working Paper, 58.

Alfani, G., & Gourdon, V. (2016). Las familias y la elección de padrinos y madrinas de bautizo en la Europa católica en la Edad Moderna. Balance y perspectivas de investigación.

Alfani, G., & Ryckbosch, W. (2016). Growing apart in early modern Europe? A comparison of inequality trends in Italy and the Low Countries, 1500–1800. Explorations in Economic History, 62, 143-153.

Allen, R. C., Murphy, T. E., & Schneider, E. B. (2015). Una de cal y otra de arena: building comparable real wages in a global perspective. Revista de Historia Economica-Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History, 33(1), 61-75.

Baggio, R., & Sainaghi, R. (2016). Mapping time series into networks as a tool to assess the complex dynamics of tourism systems. Tourism Management, 54, 23-33.

Baker, S. G., & Bonetti, M. (2016). Evaluating markers for guiding treatment. JNCI: Journal of the National Cancer Institute, 108(9), djw101.

Balbo, N., & Arpino, B. (2016). The role of family orientations in shaping the effect of fertility on subjective well-being: A propensity score matching approach. Demography, 53(4), 955-978.

Bauldry, S., Shanahan, M. J., Macmillan, R., Miech, R. A., Boardman, J. D., Dean, D. O., & Cole, V. (2016). Parental and adolescent health behaviors and pathways to adulthood. Social science research, 58, 227-242.

Bonetti, M. 2016. Interpoint distance distribution. In press, Wiley StatsRef-Statistics Reference Online.

Bonetti, M., Cirillo, P., Tanzi, P. M., & Trinchero, E. (2016). An Analysis of the Number of Medical Malpractice Claims and Their Amounts. PloS one, 11(4), e0153362.

Cassani, A., Luppi, F., & Natalizia, G. (2016). Pathways of democratisation to human development in post‐communist countries. European Journal of Political Research, 55(3), 512-530.

Del Fava, E., Rimseliene, G., Flem, E., De Blasio, B. F., Tomba, G. S., & Manfredi, P. (2016). Estimating age-specific immunity and force of infection of varicella zoster virus in Norway using mixture models. PloS one, 11(9), e0163636.

Del Fava, E., Piccarreta, R., Gregson, S., & Melegaro, A. (2016). Transition to Parenthood and HIV Infection in Rural Zimbabwe. PloS one, 11(9), e0163730.

Di Tullio, M. (2016). Popolazione, mestieri e mobilità del lavoro nella Lombardia del Cinquecento. La popolazione italiana del Quattrocento e Cinquecento, 99-114.

Gigliarano, C., U. Basellini, and M. Bonetti. 2016. Longevity and concentration in survival times: the log-scale-location family of failure time models. Lifetime Data Analysis, February 1.

Guzzetta, G., Montarsi, F., Baldacchino, F. A., Metz, M., Capelli, G., Rizzoli, A., ... & Merler, S. (2016). Potential risk of dengue and chikungunya outbreaks in northern Italy based on a population model of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae). PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 10(6), e0004762.

Guzzetta, G., P. Poletti, F. Montarsi, F. Baldacchino, G. Capelli, A. Rizzoli, R. Rosà, and S. Merler. 2016. Assessing the potential risk of Zika virus epidemics in temperate areas with established Aedes albopictus populations. Euro Surveill. Apr 14; 21(15). 

Guzzetta, G., Poletti, P., Merler, S., & Manfredi, P. (2016). The epidemiology of herpes zoster after varicella immunization under different biological hypotheses: perspectives from mathematical modeling. American journal of epidemiology, 183(8), 765-773.

Kohler, H. P., & Mencarini, L. (2016). The Parenthood Happiness Puzzle: An Introduction to Special Issue. European Journal of Population, 32(3), 327-338.

Lazar, A.A., M. Bonetti, B.F. Cole, W.K. Yip, and R.D. Gelber. 2016. Identifying Treatment Effect Heterogeneity in Clinical Trials Using Subpopulations of Events: STEPP. Clinical Trials 13(2):169–79. 

Le Moglie, M., Mencarini, L., & Rapallini, C. (2015). Is it just a matter of personality? On the role of subjective well-being in childbearing behavior. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 117, 453-475.

Luppi, F. (2016). When is the second one coming? The effect of couple’s subjective well-being following the onset of parenthood. European Journal of Population, 32(3), 421-444.

Macmillan, R., and F. Furstenberg. 2016. The Logic and Practice of Growth Curve Analysis: Modeling Strategies for Life Course Dynamics, pp. 541-569 in Handbook of the Life Course, M.J. Shanahan, J.T. Mortimer, and M.K. Kirkpatrick, eds. Switzerland: Springer International Publishing.

Marini, G., Poletti, P., Giacobini, M., Pugliese, A., Merler, S., & Rosà, R. (2016). The role of climatic and density dependent factors in shaping mosquito population dynamics: the case of Culex pipiens in northwestern Italy. PloS one, 11(4), e0154018.

Matysiak, A., Mencarini, L., & Vignoli, D. (2016). Work–Family Conflict Moderates the Relationship Between Childbearing and Subjective Well-Being. European Journal of Population, 32(3), 355-379.

Murphy, T. E., & Rossi, M. A. (2016). Land reform and violence: Evidence from Mexico. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 131, 106-113.

Percoco, M. (2016). Health shocks and human capital accumulation: the case of Spanish flu in Italian regions. Regional Studies, 50(9), 1496-1508.

Wang, X. V., Cole, B., Bonetti, M., & Gelber, R. D. (2016). Meta‐STEPP: subpopulation treatment effect pattern plot for individual patient data meta‐analysis. Statistics in medicine, 35(21), 3704-3716.

Xiao, X., van Hoek, A. J., Kenward, M. G., Melegaro, A., & Jit, M. (2016). Clustering of contacts relevant to the spread of infectious disease. Epidemics, 17, 1-9.

Yip, W. K., Bonetti, M., Cole, B. F., Barcella, W., Wang, X. V., Lazar, A., & Gelber, R. D. (2016). Subpopulation Treatment Effect Pattern Plot (STEPP) analysis for continuous, binary, and count outcomes. Clinical Trials, 13(4), 382-390.



Aassve, A., L. Mencarini, and M. Sironi. 2015. Institutional Change, Happiness, and Fertility, European Sociological Review 31 (6) 749-765.

Aassve, A., Fuochi, G., Mencarini, L., & Mendola, D. (2015). What is your couple type? Gender ideology, housework-sharing, and babies 1. Demographic Research, 32, 835.

Alfani, G. 2015. Closing a network: A tale of not-so-common lands (Nonantola, sixteenth to eighteenth centuries), pp. 153-181 in Social networks, political institutions, and rural societies. Rural History in Europe. G. Fertig (ed.). Turnhout: Brepols.

Alfani, G. 2015. Economic inequality in northwestern Italy: A long-term view (fourteenth to eighteenth centuries). Journal of Economic History 75 (4): 1058-1096.

Alfani, G. 2015. Le pandemie, passate e presenti: effetti demografici, sociali ed economici, pp. 250-273 in Ambiente e Società, update to Grande Dizionario enciclopedico Utet, T. Pievani (ed.). Torino: UTET.

Alfani, G. 2015. The Reformation, the Council of Trent and the divergence of spiritual kinship and godparenthood across Europe: a long-run analysis, pp. 142-167 in The History of Families and Households. Comparative European Dimensions, S. Sovic, P. Thane and P. Viazzo (eds.). Leiden: Brill.

Alfani, G. (2015). Le parrainage en Europe et en Amérique. Pratiques de longue durée (XVI-XXI siècle). Presses Interuniversitaires.

Alfani, G., Gourdon, V., Grange, C., & Trévisi, M. (2015). La mesure du lien familial: développement et diversification d’un champ de recherches. In Annales de démographie historique (No. 1, pp. 277-320). Belin.

Alfani, G., and R. Sansa (eds.). 2015. La peste in Europa: nuove ricerche. Popolazione e Storia 2.

Alfani, G., and R. Sansa. 2015. Il ritorno della peste? Un’introduzione alla storiografia recente. Popolazione e Storia 2: 9-19.

Alfani, G., C. Grange, M. Trevisi, and V. Gourdon. 2015. La mesure du lien familial: développement et diversification d’un champ de recherches. Annales de Démographie Historique 1: 277-320.

Alfani, G., V. Gourdon, and I. Robin (eds.). 2015. Le parrainage en Europe et en Amérique. Bern: Peter Lang.
González-Lorenzo, M., A. Piatti, L. Coppola, M. Gramegna, V. Demicheli, A. Melegaro, M. Tirani, E. Parmelli, F. Auxilia, and L. Moja. 2015. Conceptual frameworks and key dimensions to support coverage decisions for vaccines. Vaccine 33 (9): 1206-1217.

Ammannati, F., De Franco, D., & Di Tullio, M. (2015). Misurare la diseguaglianza economica nell’età preindustriale: un confronto fra realtà dell’Italia centro-settentrionale. Rivista di Storia Economica, 31(3), 309-340.

Del Chiappa, G., & Baggio, R. (2015). Knowledge transfer in smart tourism destinations: analyzing the effects of a network structure. Journal of Destination Marketing & Management, 4(3), 145-150.

Fatttore, G., Numerato, D., Peltola, M., Banks, H., Graziani, R., Heijink, R., ... & Sveréus, S. (2015). Variations and determinants of mortality and length of stay of very low birth weight and very low for gestational age infants in seven European countries. Health economics, 24(S2), 65-87.

González-Lorenzo, M., Piatti, A., Coppola, L., Gramegna, M., Demicheli, V., Melegaro, A., ... & Moja, L. (2015). Conceptual frameworks and key dimensions to support coverage decisions for vaccines. Vaccine, 33(9), 1206-1217.

Graziani, R., M. Guindani, and P.F. Thall. 2015. Bayesian nonparametric estimation of targeted agent effects on biomarker change to predict clinical outcome. Biometrics 71 (1): 188-197.

Lazar, A. A., Bonetti, M., Cole, B. F., Yip, W. K., & Gelber, R. D. (2016). Identifying treatment effect heterogeneity in clinical trials using subpopulations of events: STEPP. Clinical Trials, 13(2), 169-179.

Marziano, V., P. Poletti, G. Guzzetta, M. Ajelli, P. Manfredi, and S. Merler. 2015. The impact of demographic changes on the epidemiology of herpes zoster: Spain as a case study. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B: Biological Sciences 282 (1804).

Mich, L., & Baggio, R. (2015). Evaluating Facebook pages for small hotels: a systematic approach. Information Technology & Tourism, 15(3), 209-231.

Poletti, P., S. Merler, M. Ajelli, P. Manfredi, P.K. Munywoki, D.J. Nokes, and A. Melegaro. 2015. Evaluating vaccination strategies for reducing infant respiratory syncytial virus infection in low-income settings, BMC Medicine 13 (1): 49.

Poletti, P., Ajelli, M., & Merler, S. (2015). Behavioral changes and adaptation induced by epidemics. In Social Phenomena (pp. 155-175). Springer International Publishing.

Risso, D.S., L. Taglioli, S. De Iasio, P. Gueresi, G. Alfani, S. Nelli, P. Rossi, G. Paoli, and S. Tofanelli. 2015. Estimating sampling selection bias in human genetics: a phenomenological approach. PLos ONE 10(10): 1-13.

Santermans, E., N. Goeyvaerts, A. Melegaro, W.J. Edmunds, C. Faes, M. Aerts, P. Beutels, and N. Hens. 2015. The social contact hypothesis under the assumption of endemic equilibrium: Elucidating the transmission potential of VZV in Europe. Epidemics 11: 14-23.

Skirbekk, V., M. Stonawski, and G. Alfani. 2015. Consequences of a universal European demographic transition on regional and global population distributions. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 98: 271–289.

Tirani, M., M. Meregaglia, and A. Melegaro. 2015. Health and economic outcomes of introducing the new MenB vaccine (Bexsero) into the Italian Routine Infant Immunisation Programme. PloS one 10 (4).

 Vitali, A., Aassve, A., & Lappegård, T. (2015). Diffusion of childbearing within cohabitation. Demography, 52(2), 355-377.

Aassve, A., G. Fuochi, and L. Mencarini. 2014. Desperate Housework Relative Resources, Time Availability, Economic Dependency, and Gender Ideology Across Europe. Journal of Family Issues 35 (8): 1000-1022.

Ajelli, M., P. Poletti, A. Melegaro, and S. Merler. 2014. The role of different social contexts in shaping influenza transmission during the 2009 pandemic. Nature.com Scientific reports 4.

Alfani, G. 2014. Back to the peasants: new insights into the economic, social, and demographic history of northern Italian rural populations during the Early Modern period. History Compass 12 (1): 62–71.

Alfani, G. 2014. Le stime della mortalità per colera in Italia: una nota comparativa. Popolazione e Storia 2: 77-85.

Billari, F., R. Graziani, and E. Melilli. 2014. Stochastic Population Forecasting Based on Combinations of Expert Evaluations within the Bayesian Paradigm. Demography 51 (5): 1933-1954.

Bonetti, M., E. Colicino, and P. Muliere. 2014. Lorenz Curves and Treatment-Covariate Interactions in Clinical Trials. Sri Lanka Journal of Applied Statistics, 1391-4987.

De Cao, E., A. Melegaro, R. Klok, and M. Postma. 2014. Optimising Assessments of the Epidemiological Impact in the Netherlands of Paediatric Immunisation with 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine Using Dynamic Transmission Modelling. PloS one 9 (4) e89415.

De Cao, E., E. Zagheni, P. Manfredi, and A. Melegaro. 2014. The relative importance of frequency of contacts and duration of exposure for the spread of directly transmitted infections. Biostatistics 15 (3): 470-483.

Del Fava, E., Z. Shkedy, M. Aregay, and G. Molenberghs. 2014. Modelling multivariate, overdispersed binomial data with additive and multiplicative random effects. Statistical Modeling 14 (2): 99-133.

Di Tullio, M., and C. Lorenzini. 2014. Per linee orizzontali. Parentela e famiglia in Italia settentrionale in età moderna. Popolazione e Storia 15 (1).

Shanahan, M., S. Bauldry, B. Roberts, R. Macmillan, and R. Russo. 2014. Personality and the Reproduction of Social Class. Social Forces, 93 (1): 209-240.
















Last updated 17 July 2017 - 18:23:48