Please also see the Dondena Working Papers.


Recent Publications (please also refer to each unit's individual research pages)



Gelepithis, M. and Jeannet, A. The Political Consequences of Outsider Labour Market Status in the United States: A Micro-level Study, In Press. Social Policy and Administration.


A. Casarico, P. Profeta, and C. Pronzato. “On the regional labour market determinants of female university enrolment in Europe,” Regional Studies (forthcoming).

Baker, S., and M. Bonetti. Forthcoming. Evaluating markers for guiding treatment. Journal of the National Cancer Institute.

Bastani, S., S. Blomquist, and L. Micheletto. Forthcoming. “Optimal commodity taxation with varying quality of goods,” Research in Economics.

Bauldry, S., M.J. Shanahan, R. Macmillan, R.A. Miech, J.D. Boardman, D.O. Dean, and V. Cole. 2016. Parental and adolescent health behaviors and pathways to adulthood. Social Science Research.

Bonetti, M. 2016. Interpoint distance distribution. In press, Wiley StatsRef-Statistics Reference Online.

Bonetti, M., P. Cirillo, P. Musile Tanzi, and E. Trinchero. Forthcoming. An Analysis of the Number of Medical Malpractice Claims and Their Amounts. PLOS One.

Clark, A., C. D'Ambrosio, S. Ghislandi. Forthcoming. “Adaptation to poverty in long run panel data,” Review of Economics and Statistics.

Wang, X.V., B.F. Cole, M. Bonetti, and R.D. Gelber. Forthcoming. Meta-STEPP: Subpopulation Treatment Effect Pattern Plot for Individual Patient Data Meta-Analysis. Statistics in Medicine.

Yip, W.-K., M. Bonetti, B.F. Cole, W. Barcella, X.V. Wang, A. Lazar, and R.D. Gelber. In press. STEPP Subpopulation Analysis for Continuous, Binary and Count Outcomes. Clinical Trials.



Johnson, P., Nicholls, S., Student, J., Amelung, B., Baggio, R., Balbi, S., ... & Pons, M. (2016). Easing the adoption of agent-based modelling (ABM) in tourism research. Current Issues in Tourism, 1-8.

Amelung, B., Student, J., Nicholls, S., Lamers, M., Baggio, R., Boavida-Portugal, I., ... & Steiger, R. (2016). The value of agent-based modelling for assessing tourism-environment interactions in the Anthropocene. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability23, 46-53.

Gigliarano, C., U. Basellini, and M. Bonetti. 2016. Longevity and concentration in survival times: the log-scale-location family of failure time models. Lifetime Data Analysis, February 1.

Guzzetta, G., P. Poletti, S. Merler, and P. Manfredi. 2016. The Epidemiology of Herpes Zoster After Varicella Immunization Under Different Biological Hypotheses: Perspectives From Mathematical Modeling. American Journal of Epidemiology 183 (8): 765-773.


Guzzetta, G., P. Poletti, F. Montarsi, F. Baldacchino, G. Capelli, A. Rizzoli, R. Rosà, and S. Merler. 2016. Assessing the potential risk of Zika virus epidemics in temperate areas with established Aedes albopictus populations. Euro Surveill. Apr 14; 21(15). 

Lazar, A.A., M. Bonetti, B.F. Cole, W.K. Yip, and R.D. Gelber. 2016. Identifying Treatment Effect Heterogeneity in Clinical Trials Using Subpopulations of Events: STEPP. Clinical Trials 13(2):169–79. 

Macmillan, R., and F. Furstenberg. 2016. The Logic and Practice of Growth Curve Analysis: Modeling Strategies for Life Course Dynamics, pp. 541-569 in Handbook of the Life Course, M.J. Shanahan, J.T. Mortimer, and M.K. Kirkpatrick, eds. Switzerland: Springer International Publishing.



“The determinants of gender gaps”, a special volume edited by A. Casarico and P. Profeta. CESifo Economics Studies March 2015.

A. Aassve, G. Fuochi, and L. Mencarini, D. Mendola. 2015. “What is your couple type? Gender ideology, housework sharing, and babies,” Demographic Research 32: 835-858.

A. Baltrunaite, A. Casarico, and P. Profeta. 2015. “Affirmative action and the power of the elderly,” CESifo Economic Studies 61(1): 148-164.

Aassve, A., L. Mencarini, and M. Sironi. 2015. Institutional Change, Happiness, and Fertility, European Sociological Review 31 (6) 749-765.

Alfani, G. 2015. Closing a network: A tale of not-so-common lands (Nonantola, sixteenth to eighteenth centuries), pp. 153-181 in Social networks, political institutions, and rural societies. Rural History in Europe. G. Fertig (ed.). Turnhout: Brepols.

Alfani, G. 2015. Economic inequality in northwestern Italy: A long-term view (fourteenth to eighteenth centuries). Journal of Economic History 75 (4): 1058-1096.

Alfani, G. 2015. Le pandemie, passate e presenti: effetti demografici, sociali ed economici, pp. 250-273 in Ambiente e Società, update to Grande Dizionario enciclopedico Utet, T. Pievani (ed.). Torino: UTET.

Alfani, G. 2015. The Reformation, the Council of Trent and the divergence of spiritual kinship and godparenthood across Europe: a long-run analysis, pp. 142-167 in The History of Families and Households. Comparative European Dimensions, S. Sovic, P. Thane and P. Viazzo (eds.). Leiden: Brill.

Alfani, G., and R. Sansa (eds.). 2015. La peste in Europa: nuove ricerche. Popolazione e Storia 2.

Alfani, G., and R. Sansa. 2015. Il ritorno della peste? Un’introduzione alla storiografia recente. Popolazione e Storia 2: 9-19.

Alfani, G., C. Grange, M. Trevisi, and V. Gourdon. 2015. La mesure du lien familial: développement et diversification d’un champ de recherches. Annales de Démographie Historique 1: 277-320.

Alfani, G., V. Gourdon, and I. Robin (eds.). 2015. Le parrainage en Europe et en Amérique. Bern: Peter Lang.

Arachi G., V. Bucci, and A. Casarico. 2015. Tax Structure and Macroeconomic Performance, International Tax and Public Finance 22 (August): 635-662.

Bastani, S., T. Blumkin, and L. Micheletto. 2015. “Optimal wage redistribution in the presence of adverse selection in the labor market,” Journal of Public Economics 131: 41-57.

Casarico A., G. Facchini, and T. Frattini. 2015. “Illegal immigration: policy perspectives and challenges,” CESifo Economic Studies, 61(3-4)(September-December): 673-700.

Casarico A., L. Micheletto and A. Sommacal 2015. “Intergenerational transmission of skills during childhood and optimal fiscal policy,” Journal of Population Economics 28(2): 353-372.

Cattaneo C., C. Fiorio, and G. Peri. 2015. “What Happens to the Careers of European Workers When Immigrants ‘Take Their Jobs’?” Journal of Human Resources, 50(3): 655-693.

Clark, A., C. D'Ambrosio, and S. Ghislandi. 2015. “Poverty Profiles and Well-Being: Panel Evidence from Germany,” Research on Economic Inequality 23: 1-22.

Figari, F., and C. Fiorio. 2015. “Fiscal Consolidation Policies in the Context of Italy’s Two Recessions,” Fiscal Studies 36(4): 499-526.

Fiorentini, G., G. Ragazzi, and S. Robone. 2015. “Are bad health and pain making us grumpy? An empirical evaluation of reporting heterogeneity in rating health system responsiveness,” Social Science and Medicine 144: 48-58.

Galasso, V., and P. Profeta. 2015. “Population Ageing and the Size of the Welfare State,”  in International Handbook of Ageing and Public Policy, Sarah Harper and Kate Hamblin, eds. Gloucester: Edward Elgar.

González-Lorenzo, M., A. Piatti, L. Coppola, M. Gramegna, V. Demicheli, A. Melegaro, M. Tirani, E. Parmelli, F. Auxilia, and L. Moja. 2015. Conceptual frameworks and key dimensions to support coverage decisions for vaccines. Vaccine 33 (9): 1206-1217.

Graziani, R., M. Guindani, and P.F. Thall. 2015. Bayesian nonparametric estimation of targeted agent effects on biomarker change to predict clinical outcome. Biometrics 71 (1): 188-197.

M. Anelli and G. Peri. 2015. "Gender gap in Italy: the role of college majors," in Unexplored Dimensions of Discrimination (Boeri, Patacchini, Peri, eds) Oxford University Press.

M. Anelli and G. Peri. 2015. "Gender of Siblings and Choice of College Major," CESifo Economic Studies 61(1): 53-71.

Marziano, V., P. Poletti, G. Guzzetta, M. Ajelli, P. Manfredi, and S. Merler. 2015. The impact of demographic changes on the epidemiology of herpes zoster: Spain as a case study. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B: Biological Sciences 282 (1804).

Poletti, P., S. Merler, M. Ajelli, P. Manfredi, P.K. Munywoki, D.J. Nokes, and A. Melegaro. 2015. Evaluating vaccination strategies for reducing infant respiratory syncytial virus infection in low-income settings, BMC Medicine 13 (1): 49.

Risso, D.S., L. Taglioli, S. De Iasio, P. Gueresi, G. Alfani, S. Nelli, P. Rossi, G. Paoli, and S. Tofanelli. 2015. Estimating sampling selection bias in human genetics: a phenomenological approach. PLos ONE 10(10): 1-13.

Santermans, E., N. Goeyvaerts, A. Melegaro, W.J. Edmunds, C. Faes, M. Aerts, P. Beutels, and N. Hens. 2015. The social contact hypothesis under the assumption of endemic equilibrium: Elucidating the transmission potential of VZV in Europe. Epidemics 11: 14-23.

Skirbekk, V., M. Stonawski, and G. Alfani. 2015. Consequences of a universal European demographic transition on regional and global population distributions. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 98: 271–289.

Tirani, M., M. Meregaglia, and A. Melegaro. 2015. Health and economic outcomes of introducing the new MenB vaccine (Bexsero) into the Italian Routine Infant Immunisation Programme. PloS one 10 (4).

Torbica, A., A. Maggioni, and S. Ghislandi. 2015. “The economic crisis and acute myocardial infarction: new evidence using hospital-level data,” PLOS_One. 17 November.



A. Aassve, G. Fuochi, and L. Mencarini. 2014. “Desperate housework: relative resources, time availability, economic dependency and gender ideology across Europe,” Journal of Family Issues 35 (8): 1000-1022.

A. Baltrunaite, P. Bello, A. Casarico, and P. Profeta. 2014. “Gender quotas and the quality of politicians,” Journal of Public Economics 118: 62-74.

Aassve, A., G. Fuochi, and L. Mencarini. 2014. Desperate Housework Relative Resources, Time Availability, Economic Dependency, and Gender Ideology Across Europe. Journal of Family Issues 35 (8): 1000-1022.

Ajelli, M., P. Poletti, A. Melegaro, and S. Merler. 2014. The role of different social contexts in shaping influenza transmission during the 2009 pandemic. Nature.com Scientific reports 4.

Alfani, G. 2014. Back to the peasants: new insights into the economic, social, and demographic history of northern Italian rural populations during the Early Modern period. History Compass 12 (1): 62–71.

Alfani, G. 2014. Le stime della mortalità per colera in Italia: una nota comparativa. Popolazione e Storia 2: 77-85.
Billari, F., R. Graziani, and E. Melilli. 2014. Stochastic Population Forecasting Based on Combinations of Expert Evaluations within the Bayesian Paradigm. Demography 51 (5): 1933-1954.

Bonetti, M., E. Colicino, and P. Muliere. 2014. Lorenz Curves and Treatment-Covariate Interactions in Clinical Trials. Sri Lanka Journal of Applied Statistics, 1391-4987.

De Cao, E., A. Melegaro, R. Klok, and M. Postma. 2014. Optimising Assessments of the Epidemiological Impact in the Netherlands of Paediatric Immunisation with 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine Using Dynamic Transmission Modelling. PloS one 9 (4) e89415.

De Cao, E., E. Zagheni, P. Manfredi, and A. Melegaro. 2014. The relative importance of frequency of contacts and duration of exposure for the spread of directly transmitted infections. Biostatistics 15 (3): 470-483.

Del Fava, E., Z. Shkedy, M. Aregay, and G. Molenberghs. 2014. Modelling multivariate, overdispersed binomial data with additive and multiplicative random effects. Statistical Modeling 14 (2): 99-133.

Di Tullio, M., and C. Lorenzini. 2014. Per linee orizzontali. Parentela e famiglia in Italia settentrionale in età moderna. Popolazione e Storia 15 (1).

P. Profeta, L. Amidani Aliberti, A. Casarico, M. D’Amico, and A. Puccio. 2014. Women Directors. The Italian Way and Beyond. Palgrave MacMillan.

Shanahan, M., S. Bauldry, B. Roberts, R. Macmillan, and R. Russo. 2014. Personality and the Reproduction of Social Class. Social Forces, 93 (1): 209-240.













Last updated 22 February 2017 - 17:13:36