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The sensitivity of the Scaled Model of Error with respect to the choice of the correlation parameters: A simulation study

Working paper n°: 37

Author(s): Rebecca Graziani, Nico Keilman

Year: 2011

In this paper we investigate the sensitivity of stochastic population forecasts produced by means of the Scaled Model of Error with respect to the choice of the correlation parameters. In particular, we evaluate the impact that a change in the specification of the correlation of the age-specific fertility forecast error increments across time and age and of the correlation of the age-specific mortality forecast error increments across time, age and sex has on the forecasts of the Total Fertility Rate and of the Male and Female Life Expectancies respectively. In our opinion a sensitivity analysis of this kind is extremely useful, since up to now the relevance and the impact of the choice of the Scaled Model of Error input parameters has not be discussed in detail. Such analysis will provide users with a better understanding of the model itself.


Rebecca Graziani

Universita Bocconi, Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics

 

Nico Keilman

University of Oslo, Department of Economics

 

 

Keywords: population forecasts, Scaled Model of Error, sensitivity analysis

 

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Last updated 16 July 2015 - 16:19:18